Peak Performance Newsletter – 2026 Market Outlook

Confidence returning, capital flowing, opportunities emerging.
Commercial real estate investment sales in the United States are poised for a rebound heading into
2026 — with increased transaction volume, improving lending conditions, and stronger property
fundamentals. While refinancing risks and rate pressures remain, investor sentiment is turning
optimistic.
SALES VOLUME & LENDING TRENDS
• CREF (commercial real estate financing) origination volume is projected to rise 24%, with
multifamily investment up 16% year-over-year.
• Lending activity continues to strengthen, with tighter underwriting offset by more robust debt
availability, enabling investors with fresh capital to pursue deals under more favorable terms.
• Greater liquidity and a broader lender base are unlocking new opportunities across asset
classes.
ASSET CLASS HIGHLIGHTS
• Data Centers: Demand is strong with fierce competition and most new developments already
pre-leased, making this the top opportunity for several years running.
• Multifamily: Overall demand continues to outpace new supply, supporting absorption and rent
growth, construction pipelines shrinking due to financing challenges, with the exception of
markets that were overbuilt during low interest rate market conditions.
• Office: Signs of recovery are emerging, bolstered by limited new construction and progress in
return-to-office initiatives, raising investor interest in both suburban and urban offices.
• Logistics & Manufacturing: Trends in onshoring and supply chain flexibility are supporting
specialized facilities and advanced logistics, reshaping demand patterns.
MARKET SENTIMENT & INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
• Survey of industry executives indicate optimism, with a sentiment of 65 (out of 100)
• 75% of global investors plan to increase real estate investment in the next 12-18 months.
• The U.S. ranks #1 as the top global market for investment opportunity by 53% of respondents.
RISK & STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES
• Debt Maturities: Over $1.7 trillion in commercial mortgages face looming maturity, with many
relying on extensions and “pretend-and-extend” solutions, indicating ongoing risk tied to legacy
loans.
• Capital Tightening: Capital availability and interest rates are the main concerns, but private
credit markets are increasingly filling gaps vacated by traditional lenders.
• Policy Uncertainty: Tax and trade policy remain critical sources of uncertainty, as recent policy
proposals could impact foreign investment flows.
LOOKING AHEAD
2026 is shaping up to be a year of renewed opportunity for U.S. commercial real estate — driven
by improving liquidity, resilient performance in key sectors such as multifamily, data centers, and
logistics, and growing institutional and global investment interest. Even so, refinancing and policy
risks will remain influential factors in the market landscape.
We continue to monitor these market forces to help our clients identify and capitalize on emerging
investment opportunities.